Saturday, January 19, 2013

Our New God = Gold

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-01-16/news/36374211_1_jewellery-demand-tonnes-philip-klapwijk This was an interesting link posted in the American Institute for Steel Construction group on LinkedIn, considering that it lauds or gives a rosy forecast for a luxury metal in a forum that should be dedicated, if not to the promotion of, at least to the improved usage of a much baser yet far more essential metal (which, if I'm not mistaken, is far better, esp. in concert w/ other materials, at sheltering us from the elements). But I digress from my main point about gold and the world. The writer of the article seems confident economic troubles will continue to push gold higher despite it being at a 12-year high. I will agree with them that it may go higher in the first half of the year, but at least starting sometime in spring I begin to be skeptical how high gold can go, esp. in view of its mechanics surrounding times of turmoil. A few years back I began to wonder how the plenteous gold hawkers on the radio could be wrong & came up w/ a scenario: if things get extremely bad (apocalyptic conditions usu. used as justification for gold hoarding) most people will be struggling to get food & keep roofs over their heads. In such a case, the vast majority will be trying to sell any gold they have while few are buying. In a case where the need to pay bills, &c. suddenly drops the demand curve & pushes the supply curve dramatically higher, the price drops precipitously (or at least severely). This was actually seen in 2008, when gold's price dropped from $990 on 17 Mar. to $700 on 12 Nov.: (price of gold = GLD x $10/oz)
(Try the following MSN Money link to verify this info: http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/etf-charts/?symbol=US%3aGLD&Intraday=1&) Given this background, I also believe there are too many indicators in the world pointing toward a severe enough 2nd dip in this global recession to precipitate another round of financial problems which will force people to sell gold at a loss, most likely sometime in early 2014 (particularly since too many seem to think the mutual can-kicking in DC is accomplishing something significant toward a resolution to the recession).